Cite this paper:
Yugui ZHU, Shiyao ZHENG, Bin KANG, Gabriel REYGONDEAU, Yan SUN, Qianshuo ZHAO, Yunfeng WANG, William W. L. CHEUNG, Jiansong CHU. Predicting impacts of climate change on the biogeographic patterns of representative species richness in Prydz Bay-Amery Ice Shelf[J]. Journal of Oceanology and Limnology, 2023, 41(4): 1504-1518

Predicting impacts of climate change on the biogeographic patterns of representative species richness in Prydz Bay-Amery Ice Shelf

Yugui ZHU1,2, Shiyao ZHENG1, Bin KANG1, Gabriel REYGONDEAU3,4, Yan SUN5, Qianshuo ZHAO5, Yunfeng WANG6, William W. L. CHEUNG3, Jiansong CHU5,2
1 Key Laboratory of Mariculture(Ministry of Education), College of Fisheries, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003, China;
2 Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory, Guangzhou 511458, China;
3 Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver V5 K0 A1, BC, Canada;
4 Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Max Planck, Yale Center for Biodiversity Movement and Global Change, Yale University, New Haven 06501, CT, USA;
5 College of Marine Life Science, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003, China;
6 Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, China
The research on the biological ecology of the Prydz Bay-Amery Ice Shelf in East Antarctica is inadequate under the increasing threat from climate change, especially for Antarctic fish and krill. The Dynamic Bioclimatic Envelope Model (DBEM) has been widely used in predicting the variation of species distribution and abundance in ocean and land under climate change; it can quantify the spatiotemporal changes of multi population under different climate emission scenarios by identifying the environmental preferences of species. The species richness and geographical pattern of six Antarctic representative species around Prydz Bay-Amery ice shelf were studied under RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 emission scenarios from 1970 to 2060 using Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), and Max Planck Institute (MPI) earth system models. The results showed that the species richness decreased as a whole, and the latitude gradient moved to the pole. The reason is that ocean warming, sea ice melting, and human activities accelerate the distribution changes of species biogeographical pattern, and the habitat range of krill, silverfish, and other organisms is gradually limited, which further leads to the change of species composition and the decrease of biomass. It is obvious that priority should be given to Prydz Bay-Amery ice shelf in the planning of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) in East Antarctica.
Key words:    climate change|species richness|biogeographic pattern|marine protected areas|Prydz Bay-Amery Ice Shelf   
Received: 2022-02-15   Revised:
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Articles by Yugui ZHU
Articles by Shiyao ZHENG
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Articles by Yunfeng WANG
Articles by William W. L. CHEUNG
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