Response of the North Pacific Oscillation to global warming in the models of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report -- Journal of Oceanology and Limnology,2018,36(3):601-611

	Cite this paper:
	CHEN Zheng, GAN Bolan, WU Lixin. Response of the North Pacific Oscillation to global warming in the models of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report[J]. Journal of Oceanology and Limnology, 2018, 36(3): 601-611

Response of the North Pacific Oscillation to global warming in the models of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report

CHEN Zheng, GAN Bolan, WU Lixin

Physical Oceanography Laboratory/CIMST, Ocean University of China, and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266003, China

Abstract:

Based on 22 of the climate models from phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, we investigate the ability of the models to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the wintertime North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), which is the second most important factor determining the wintertime sea level pressure field in simulations of the pre-industrial control climate, and evaluate the NPO response to the future most reasonable global warming scenario (the A1B scenario). We reveal that while most models simulate the geographic distribution and amplitude of the NPO pattern satisfactorily, only 13 models capture both features well. However, the temporal variability of the simulated NPO could not be significantly correlated with the observations. Further analysis indicates the weakened NPO intensity for a scenario of strong global warming is attributable to the reduced lower-tropospheric baroclinicity at mid-latitudes, which is anticipated to disrupt large-scale and low-frequency atmospheric variability, resulting in the diminished transfer of energy to the NPO, together with its northward shift.

Received: 2017-01-18 Revised:

Tools

PDF (1077 KB) Free

Print this page

Add to favorites

Email this article to others

Authors

Articles by CHEN Zheng

Articles by GAN Bolan

Articles by WU Lixin

References:
Ashok K, Behera S K, Rao S A, Weng H Y, Yamagata T. 2007.El Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnection. J. Geophys. Res., 112(C11):C11007.
Branstator G W. 1995. Organization of storm track anomalies by recurring low-frequency circulation anomalies. J.Atmos. Sci., 52(2):207-226.
Cai M, Yang S, Van den Dool H M, Kousky V E. 2007.Dynamical implications of the orientation of atmospheric eddies:a local energetics perspective. Tellus A:Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 59(1):127-140.
Chhak K C, Di Lorenzo E, Schneider N, Cummins P F. 2009.Forcing of low-frequency ocean variability in the Northeast Pacific. J. Climate, 22(5):1 255-1 276.
Compo G P, Whitaker, J S, Sardeshmukh P D, Matsui N, Allan R J, Yin X, Gleason B E, Vose R S, Rutledge G, Bessemoulin P, Brönnimann S, Brunet M, Crouthamel R I, Grant A N, Groisman P Y, Jones P D, Kruk M C, Kruger A C, Marshall G J, Maugeri M, Mok H Y, Nordli Ø, Ross T F, Trigo R M, Wang X L, Woodruff S D, Worley S J. 2011. The twentieth century reanalysis project. Quart. J.Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137(654):1-28.
Di Lorenzo E, Cobb K M, Furtado J C, Schneider N, Anderson B T, Bracco A, Alexander M A, Vimont D J. 2010. Central Pacific El Niño and decadal climate change in the North Pacific Ocean. Nat. Geosci., 3(11):762-765.
Di Lorenzo E, Combes V, Keister J E, Strub P T, Thomas A C, Franks P J S, Ohman M D, Furtado J C, Bracco A, Bograd S J, Peterson W T, Schwing F B, Chiba S, Taguchi B, Hormazabal S, Parada C. 2013. Synthesis of Pacific Ocean climate and ecosystem dynamics. Oceanography, 26(4):68-81.
Di Lorenzo E, Schneider N, Cobb K M, Franks P J S, Chhak K, Miller A J, McWilliams J C, Bograd S J, Arango H, Curchitser E, Powell T M, Rivière P. 2008. North Pacific Gyre Oscillation links ocean climate and ecosystem change. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35(8):L08607.
Hannachi A, Jolliffe I T, Stephenson D B. 2007. Empirical orthogonal functions and related techniques in atmospheric science:a review. Int. J. Climatol., 27(9):1 119-1 152.
Hoskins B J, James I N, White G H. 1983. The shape, propagation and mean-flow interaction of large-scale weather systems. J. Atmos. Sci., 40(7):1 595-1 612.
Lau N C. 1988. Variability of the observed midlatitude storm tracks in relation to low-frequency changes in the circulation pattern. J. Atmos. Sci., 45(19):2 718-2 743.
Linkin M E, Nigam S. 2008. The North Pacific OscillationWest Pacific teleconnection pattern:mature-phase structure and winter impacts. J. Climate, 21(9):1 979-1 997.
Lorenz E N. 1956. Empirical orthogonal functions and statistical weather prediction. Department of Meteorology, Scientific Report No.1, MIT, Cambridge. p.1-49.
Mak M, Cai M. 1989. Local barotropic instability. J. Atmos.Sci., 46(21):3 289-3 311.
Nakamura H. 1992. Midwinter suppression of baroclinic wave activity in the Pacific. J. Atmos. Sci., 49(17):1 629-1 642.
Nigam S. 2003. Teleconnections. In:Holton J R, Pyle J A, Curry J A eds. Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences.Academic Press, London. p.2 243-2 269.
Rogers J C. 1990. Patterns of low-frequency monthly sea level pressure variability (1899-1986) and associated wave cyclone frequencies. J. Climate, 3(12):1 364-1 379.
Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt K B, Tignor M, Miller H L. 2007. Climate Change 2007:the Physical Science Basis:Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK.
Vallis G K, Gerber E P, Kushner P J, Cash B A. 2004. A mechanism and simple dynamical model of the North Atlantic Oscillation and annular modes. J. Atmos. Sci., 61(3):264-280.
Vimont D J, Wallace J M, Battisti D S. 2003. The seasonal footprinting mechanism in the Pacific:implications for ENSO. J. Climate, 16(16):2 668-2 675.
Walker G T, Bliss E W. 1932. World weather V. Mem. Roy.Meteor. Soc., 44:53-84.
Wallace J M, Gutzler D S. 1981. Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 109(4):784-812.
Wettstein J J, Wallace J M. 2010. Observed patterns of monthto-month storm-track variability and their relationship to the background flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 67(5):1 420-1 437.
Yu J Y, Kim S T. 2011. Relationships between extratropical sea level pressure variations and the central Pacific and eastern Pacific types of ENSO. J. Climate, 24(3):708-720.